Arnobius the Elder was a major figure in the Pagan church in North Africa in 4th century A.D. Arnobius was a devout Pagan for most of his life, and he enjoyed teasing the local Christians for their lack of physical pleasures — mostly sexual ones — enjoyed in life.
Then, Arnobius has a shocking revelation, one related to probability. Arnobius argued that two 2×2 matrices exists:
| Men have souls | Men do not have souls |
| God exists | God does not exist |
Arnobius argues that the probability of an afterlife outweighed the pleasure one would have in the mortal world. I believe this simply isn’t true.
Basic probability tells us there are four possible truths:
* I’ll use the word “men” as Arnobius did.
- Men have souls and God exists
- Men have souls and God does not exist
- Men do not have souls and God exists
- Men do not have souls and God does not exist
With a lack of faith (as this argument is similar to Pascal’s), each of these four possibility have an equal chance — in this case, one fourth. Therefore, let us examine the implications of each:
Men have souls and God exists
In this case, we should all be very concerned about the afterlife — because there will be one. Logically, if men have eternal souls and God exists, then we will have to cope with our decisions in the afterlife — meaning that following a Christian lifestyle is very, very good.
Christianity: 1
Paganism: 0
Men have souls and God does not exist
In this situation, all men would have an afterlife, but there would be no God to judge us — therefore, the afterlife would be equivalent for all men regardless of acts taken in this life.
Christianity: 1
Paganism: 1
Men do not have souls and God exists
If men do not have souls, there is no afterlife. As the frequency of modern-day miracles/lighting bolts falling from the sky are quite low (as they also were in Arnobius’ time), God really has no effect on our lives whatsoever. Therefore, functionally, God does not truly exist.
Christianity: 1
Paganism: 2
Men do not have souls and God does not exist
This is the Pagan argument to begin with — obviously, there is no afterlife or judgement.
Christianity: 1
Paganism: 3
In terms of more recent probability that Arnobius did not have access to, this means that Paganism has a 75% chance of being correct and Christianity has a 25% chance of being correct. Therefore, I argue that physical pleasures in the current world outweigh the chances of infernal damnation in the afterlife.
When estimating the value of a lottery ticket, one assumes the basic formula of:
value = magnitude * probability
For example, a lottery ticket that has a 50% chance of paying out one dollar is worth 50 cents — this is called a “break even” price, because, on average, if you bought a lottery ticket, you’d get exactly what you paid back.
This is where my argument will run into a few problems — one may argue that the magnitude of being damned in hell would be infinity, therefore, regardless of the low probability, the value is infinity as well. Therefore, even a 0.00001% chance of Christianity being correct would outweigh physical pleasures in this life.
However, I’ll argue that having a happy, meaningful, pleasure-filled life ALSO has an infinite magnitude. Certainly, one could argue that the timeframe — eternity — of the torture of the afterlife would make it outweight a limited-time happiness on Earth. Firstly, there is an issue as to if eternal torture would infinitly remain torture in the absence of something to compare that torture to — but I digress.
I personally believe that Arnobius argument is terribly flawed — draw your own opinion, hopefully this article gives you a little more prospective.
(This isn’t to say that we should be terrible people — but we should do what makes us happy.)
Daniel Cox said
The beginning of your argument has a flaw. You assume a perfect statistical distribution, when there is no evidence to give this weight.
I could make a similar matrix based on the same premise:
The earth is round | The earth is flat
The earth is the center of the universe | The earth is not the center of the universe
If the earth is round and not the center of the universe, then Galileo’s theory was correct.
Galileo – 1
Roman Inquisition – 0
If the earth is flat, but it is not the center of the universe, then Galileo was giving advice that would cause seafarers to fall off the edge of the earth.
Galileo – 1
Roman Inquisition – 1
If the earth is round, but it is not the center of the universe, then Galileo was lying to the people.
Galileo – 1
Roman Inquisition – 2
If the earth is round, but it is the center of the universe, we should trust the conventional 16th-century wisdom of the Holy See.
Galileo – 1
Roman Inquisition – 3
Therefore, there is a 25% chance that Galileo was right and a 75% chance that he was wrong, and it was just to have him publicly executed.
The fact that we may not know the answer to a question does not pin it down to a 50-50 chance. It merely indicates that we have insufficient evidence to answer the question.
However, there is a simple argument that many atheists have presented, and it relies on a similar matrix. It does not require the equal chances of a statement being true or false.
Here is my premise:
Bad things happen to good people.
And here is the matrix:
God is perfectly good | God not perfectly good
God is all-powerful | God is non all-powerful
Christianity relies on the idea that God is perfectly good and all-powerful. However, if both these are true, then evil should not exist. We know that evil exists, or at least we know our premise to be true: “Bad things happen to good people.” Therefore, a God that is perfectly good and all-powerful yet allows evil to exist in his creation is a contradiction.
An all-powerful good must be perfect. If God is all-powerful and allows evil to exist, then he must be malevolent, and not worth worshiping.
If he is indifferent or he tries to be good, but does not succeed, then he is not all-powerful. A God that does not have the power to protect us from evil is also not worth worshiping.
This argument is the problem of evil, and it has been presented by many philosophers. I have not found an acceptable answer.
Ryan Marcus said
His argument was based on that equal distribution, I just wanted to show that his own logic didn’t bring him to a proper conclusion.
Ryan Marcus said
Also, you’d enjoy the book “God’s Problem” which makes a very similar argument (and cites scripture to support it.)
Chip Carter said
Something also to take into consideration is Faith. It does not matter what people believe so long as they believe it. A tricky bit with the mind is that if we believe it, we put a higher value on it. As such, a 25% chance of something being correct might seem like a bigger probability of something with a 75% chance of it being wrong. My point is, sometimes people will risk the 25% chance even if it is obvious that the 75% chance is more obviously correct.
…. Another thing to point out, you are using Probability and Chance synonomusly. Minus my bad spelling. Probability and chance do not relate.
Daniel Cox said
My argument is not about faith. Faith can, and has proven to be, a useful tool for human civilization. Faith can be destructive, but I am of the conviction that the good created by faith outweighs the bad. My argument is about the existence of God. Can we have faith if we know that God does not exist? Absolutely. I don’t know of a better way to express it than Shepherd Book: “When I talk about belief, why do you always assume I’m talking about God?”
From The American Heritage® Dictionary of the English Language, Fourth Edition:
prob·a·bil·i·ty – noun – The likelihood that a given event will occur: little probability of rain tonight.
chance – noun – The likelihood of something happening; possibility or probability. Often used in the plural: Chances are good that you will win. Is there any chance of rain?
I’m not sure what you are saying about the difference between probability and chance.
Chip Carter said
Meh, I am mathmatical. The difference between probability and chance is probability is the likelyhood of it being able to happen, chance is the likelyhood that it WILL happen.